Tuesday Nov.23, 2021

💸 Jerome’s 2nd act

Sticking to the chair [Westend61 via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Shaking your phone now has a purpose: Instagram’s new “rage shake” feature lets you shake to report a problem with the app. Arms will be toned.

Tech stocks continued to drop today, while “cyclical stocks” like Exxon and Chase gained. Cyclicals = shares of companies that are closely tied to the health of the economy.

Erupt

El Salvador is planning a volcano-powered “Bitcoin City,” but its moves could be economically implosive

Not an Onion headline... El Salvador said it plans to build a volcano-powered Bitcoin City featuring a central plaza that looks like a massive Bitcoin symbol. Construction is scheduled to start next year. This past September, the Central American nation became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the US dollar. Last week, 40-year-old Salvadoran President Bukele said Bitcoin City would be built next to a volcano, which would power BTC mining, and wouldn’t have any taxes, except a sales tax. Bukele is known for his crypto bullishness and authoritarian tactics (and his backward baseball cap).

Bit bonds: El Salvador plans to create the world’s first government-issued “Bitcoin bonds.” Half the funds from the $1B issues would be converted to BTC, and the other half would be used for city infrastructure and mining.

Bit volatile... El Salvador is one of Latin America's poorest countries, with 23% of its population below the poverty line. Its existing gov’t bonds (aka: debt) are already categorized as junk grade, and the Bitcoin-bonds plan is getting side-eye from financial experts. Meanwhile, El Salvador is spending hundreds of millions on its Bitcoin rollout, which Bukele believes will improve financial inclusion and attract spending from foreign crypto investors.

Salvadorans can pay for anything in Bitcoin through gov’t-run BTC wallet “Chivo” — from McMuffins to taxes, rent, and even salaries. Bukele says Chivo now has millions of users, but USD is still the most used currency by far.

Larger scale = greater risk… By adopting BTC as legal tender, El Salvador is taking a wide-scale risk for 6.5M citizens. The IMF is worried that BTC's volatility — and history of rapid plunges — poses major threats to El Salvador's economy. In a September poll, 80% of Salvadorans said they lacked confidence in BTC, and protests have erupted over fears it could destabilize the economy further. Still, it could be a valuable experiment for other countries considering Bitcoin as a national currency. So far: only Panama.

Sequel

Biden picks Powell for a second term as Fed chair, hoping to fight surging prices

Powell reloaded… Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been running America’s central bank since 2018. He helped the economy rebound from a pandemic plunge with heavy stimulus medicine. Think: pumping trillions into the money supply through $120B monthly bond purchases. Now stocks are near record highs, but inflation is soaring — and Powell may have to clean up the aftermath.

After months of deliberation, Biden said he’d appoint Powell to another four-year term. The Senate is expected to confirm Biden’s choice soon.
Power to the Powell: For months, investors had wondered whether Biden would nominate pro-business Powell or Fed governor Lael Brainard, who’s known to be tougher on banks (Biden said he’d appoint her to the No. 2 spot).

If it ain’t broke… don’t nix it. For Biden, the stakes of this nomination are high. US inflation hit a 31-year high last month. Half of voters blame Biden for surging prices of staples, from gas to bacon. Biden will rely on Powell for help keeping prices down: The Fed can raise interest rates to cool spending and keep prices in check. About that…

This month the Fed approved plans to start scaling back its economy-boosting bond-buying program.
It announced it was planning to buy $15B less in bonds — and end all bond purchases by June.

There’s a trade-off… between inflation and growth. Keeping inflation in check could mean limiting the cash that flows out of banks. It could mean higher interest rates on loans, from mortgages to credit cards — which could depress spending. The sweet spot: keeping inflation under control while maintaining economic growth. Fed officials don’t want to raise interest rates until at least July, after they’ve ended their bond-buying spree. But if prices keep soaring, they may have to move more quickly.

What else we’re Snackin’

Filter: Zoom shares tumbled 7% after it reported slowing sales growth, despite beating expectations. Investors are questioning its potential for long-term growth.
Action: Several large unions asked the FTC to block Amazon’s planned $8.5B acquisition of film studio MGM, saying it would hurt streaming competition.
Crank: Samsung reportedly plans to build a $17B chip-making factory in Texas, as the Biden admin pushed for more US-made chips to ease shortages.
Float: GM bought a 25% stake in electric-boat company Pure Watercraft as part of its effort to expand its EV business beyond cars.
Rebrand: Authentic Brands, the company behind Forever21, Brooks Brothers, and Sports Illustrated put its IPO plans on hold and raised $3.5B.
Fine: Chinese regulators fined Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu over 43 antitrust violations dating back to 2012, signaling the country’s tech crackdown isn’t over.

Tuesday

Earnings expected from Autodesk, Dell, HP, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, Dick's Sporting Goods, Gap, Nordstrom, American Eagle, and Abercrombie & Fitch

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin, and shares of GM, Netflix, and Amazon

ID: 1933003

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Rani Molla

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Exclusive | China Orders Apple to Remove Popular Messaging Apps

Rani Molla

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Tesla recalls the Cybertruck for faulty accelerator pedals that can get stuck | TechCrunch

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

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Friday, April 19th

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World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢

Pop Quiz!

What’s the world’s busiest airport?

Don't be a sucka

Rani Molla

21h

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

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