Friday Jul.31, 2020

🎁 Amazon delivers a double profit

_Apple loves its profit Pomeranians_
_Apple loves its profit Pomeranians_

Hey Snackers,

Coca-Cola is going hard. It's entering the alcohol biz for the 1st time since 1983, when it sold its rando wine company. Coke is leveraging its trendy Topo Chico sparkling water brand to launch... hard seltzer (details on our pod). Because we definitely needed more of that.

While the S&P 500 and Dow ticked down, the Nasdaq got a little bump in anticipation of Big Tech earnings. Meanwhile, the US economy officially had its worst quarter ever: GDP — the total value of all goods and services produced — took a 33% nosedive for the April to June quarter.

Deliver

Amazon crushes earnings and doubles its profit — it spent big, but it won bigger

The Empire strikes back... A day after Jeff Bezos got grilled by Congress, his ginormous baby Amazon reported expectation-smashing quarterly earnings. The Zon delivered big numbers:

  • +100%: Amazon's quarterly profit doubled to $5.6B from last year. Even more impressive when you consider it spent $4B on COVID-related costs.
  • +40%: Amazon's sales soared to a casual total of $89B. $50B came from products and $39B came from services (like AWS cloud computing and 3rd party seller plans).
  • 175K: How many jobs Amazon created since March. That's almost double Delta's total number of employees.

It's surprising, but it's not... Amazon's expenses were up a massive $4B, which should have eaten into profits. But it still managed to double its profit because: almost every single one of Amazon's business lines directly benefited from the corona-conomy. Lockdowns and germ-avoidance hugely favored the Zon's businesses.

  • Ecommerce: Amazon's 3rd party sales jumped 52% as sellers flocked online, and Amazon-owned sales popped 48%.
  • Cloud: Amazon's AWS cloud brought in $11B on WFH cloud computing needs.
  • Grocery: Amazon revved up grocery delivery capacity by 160% and tripled pickup locations on soaring demand.
  • Streaming: Prime Video launched its Watch Parties social feature, after 1st time viewers nearly 2X'd in the previous quarter.

Amazon’s earnings just reinforce Congress’ argument... Wednesday, Jeff Bezos tried to convince Congress that Amazon faces real competition — in other words, that it's not a competitor-crushing monopoly. But its massive earnings suggest many Americans view it as a necessary platform, especially mid-pandemic. Many sellers see Amazon as their only option, since it controls ~40% of the US retail ecommerce market and reaches 82% of US households.

Wear

Apple has its best 2nd quarter ever and announces it's chopping its stock in 4

What 3 months can buy you... A Lyft — the company, not the ride. Apple took home over $11B in profit last quarter, enough to buy Lyft and still have $2B left over for lunch. Despite having its stores closed and its operations slowed during the pandemic, the trillion-dollar fruit managed to post its best fiscal 3rd quarter (2nd calendar quarter) ever:

  • +11%: Total sales jumped to $60B, the most Apple has ever made from April through June.
  • $13B: Services sales (like the App Store, Apple Pay, and Apple Music) were up 15%.
  • $6.4B: Sales of Wearables like AirPods and Apple Watches were up 17%.

Now slice up the Apple... Apple also announced it's going to do a 4-for-1 stock split at the end of August. Investors who own 1 Apple share will suddenly find themselves with 4 (example: if you own 1 share trading at $400, you'd soon have 4 $100 shares).

  • Companies split their stock to lower its price so that more people can afford to invest — but the company's overall value doesn't change.
  • This is Apple's 5th stock split to date. Its last one was in 2014, when it did a 7-to-1 split. It did 2-1 splits in 2005, 2000, and 1987. Apple splits so much, it should be called Banana.
  • Apple's stock price would be way higher if those splits had never happened. Splits are less relevant today though now that fractional shares are more widely available to invest in.

The bigger the profit puppy, the slower it grows... iPhone is a fully grown St. Bernard. It's undoubtedly Apple's main profit puppy, making up almost half of its sales. But iPhone sales grew less than 2%, even with the introduction of the cheaper $399 SE. Meanwhile, Pomeranian pups grew in the double-digits: iPad sales were up 31% and Mac sales jumped 21%. The WFH shift was like gourmet dog food for those smaller profit puppies' growth spurts.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Adpocalypse: Google has its first sales decline ever after advertisers tightened their wallets — it still beat earnings expectations though.
  • Instaworthy: Facebook reports 11% sales growth, its slowest since 2012 — but it still crushed corona-conomy expectations (BTW: FB now has 1.8B daily users).
  • Sealed: UPS thrives on a 65% jump in home shipments (handling packages for Amazon helps).
  • Request: Venmo-owner PayPal has its best quarterly earnings ever — sales soared 25% as people flocked to digital payments.
  • Nom: Taco Bell parent Yum Brands saw sales fall 15% (it blamed its other child, KFC) — but business is picking up on reopenings.
  • Afford: Ford beat earnings expectations despite its factories having shut — it only lost $1.9B (compared to $5B expected).

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Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple, Amazon, and Google

ID: 1288897

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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