Wednesday Apr.10, 2019

Skinny jeans. Big Levi's profits.

"_Behold... Denim!_"
"_Behold... Denim!_"

Hey Snackers,

Denim underwear. Now a thing. Fits snuggly with Levi’s biggest day since last month’s IPO.

Wall Street's 8-day win streak ended on word President Trump's considering new tariffs on $11B of European cheese, wine, and planes.

Wear

Levi's tries on its first post-IPO earnings report

No shrinkage... In its first earnings report since its March IPO, Levi's sales and profits rose 11% and 81%. That's 11x81 in jean-speak. The stock's now up 25% since its first day of trading. Even better, the CEO doesn't think you should wash your jeans. Maybe ever.

Ripped. Not intentionally... Because of two market trends, denim sales globally have only risen 3.5% per year over the past decade — Not very fast, considering the rest of the economy's grown faster.

  1. Athleisure's surged 7% per year as consumers rethink boot-cut skinny-crops for jog-worthy yoga pants — In 2017, US imports of stretchy knit options beat denim for the 1st time ever.
  2. Online shopping now makes up over a quarter of all apparel sales. But unlike jeggings, jeans need to fit just right, best tried-on pre-purchase. That's a challenge online.

Stretch jeans to everywhere... That's Levi's strategy. It's leaning into its 166-year-old brand's global recognition to win jean sales away from other denim denizens. The real growth story is international, and it IPO'd to focus on that. So far, it's working — Here's where that happened last quarter (adjusted for foreign currencies):

  1. Americas: Sales up 10% to $717M
  2. Europe: Up 10% to $465M
  3. Asia: Up 14% to $253M — China + India is where Levi thinks there's huge potential for growth
Surprise

JetBlue jumps on new London flight leaks

Pulling a Meghan Markle... Shares of JetBlue popped in after-hours trading on speculation it could go transatlantic for its 1st time with a new London flight. Word leaked to CNBC that JetBlue's holding an "all-hands" meeting this afternoon from New York's JFK airport, with "viewing parties" from other hubs. The details look cheeky:

  • A save-the-date email announcing the April 10th event featured a London ~~subway~~ underground style design.
  • Buttons with Big Ben and the London Eye were sent to JetBlue offices to be handed out during the "event."

The royal treatment... JetBlue's channeling it. The airline's focused on its profitable business class-ish segment — Mint. It has flat-lying seats, fancy sliding-door suites, and meals that don't come in wrappers. Since 2013, Mint's focused on long East Coast <> West Coast flights (for now).

  • JetBlue's President: "When we think about transatlantic, we do think we can disrupt largely around a Mint-like product."
  • Then she goes on about the transatlantic haul: "It suffers from the same lack of competition and high fares that transcontinental routes in the US saw before JetBlue introduced Mint." That's convenient.

JetBlue's innovating a whole new category... "Upgraded Low-Cost." The airline industry's divided between low-cost and high-cost carriers — 75% of transatlantic flights last year were high-cost airlines like Delta or British Airways. But among the 25% that are low-cost, JetBlue's Mint option would fly above. London's calling.

Payday

Bank of America leads with $20 minimum wage

Inspired by Captain America... The North Carolina based bank is jacking up its minimum wage to $17/hour on May 1st, rising to $20/hour by 2021. Boom. Compared to the too-low minimum wage of $7.25/hour nationwide, we're impressed. Bank of America shareholders weren't, because higher pay could affect profits.

The economy needs this... Americans in the bottom 60% of the wage scale haven't enjoyed a real income raise since 1980. Pay promotions have happened, but barely covered the increased cost of living. But record low unemployment of 3.8% is changing things:

  • Since available workers are so scarce, they've got serious leverage in pay conversations with their bosses.
  • So Bank of America is paying workers (a lot) more because they could probably go somewhere else.

Treat tellers right... With digital-based banks sprouting up, Bank of America's building 500 more physical branches to remind customers that it's physically there for them. Branches need human tellers. This pay raise ups morale for "tens of thousands" at BoA — And happier tellers charm customers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Headline: Onion-owner Gizmodo (also publishes Deadspin and Lifehacker) was just bought by a private equity firm
  • Positive: Standard & Poors is rolling out a new version of its S&P 500 index, but focused on "socially-minded" companies
  • Starring: Netflix is in talks to buy LA's famous Egyptian Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard
  • Punished: Standard Chartered Bank fined $1.1B for violating US sanctions on Syria, Cuba, Iran, Sudan, and Myanmar
  • Grounded: Boeing revealed it received zero 737 Max orders last month

Wednesday

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.