Monday Aug.19, 2019

Pot CEO: Profits not coming for at least 3 years

_Becoming a profitable cannabis biz takes time_
_Becoming a profitable cannabis biz takes time_

Quick reminder for interns: Send that end-of-summer, this-changed-my-life (handwritten?) thank you note to your boss.

Quick reminder for everyone: Markets suffered their 3rd straight weekly loss — blame growing worries of a global economic slowdown (this sports analogy on "the inverted yield curve" by the NYT nails it).

Highs

Who's up...

Get some oil on our backs... Southwest was a top buyer of those troubled Boeing 737 Max jetliners, and since they're grounded until at least November 2nd, Southwest is getting creative — it's adding a bunch of California-to-Hawaii flights, some for $99. There's less competition on those islands, growing tourist appreciation, and investor approval, so shares increased 3% Friday.

Feed us... While the rest of retail's bumming on tariff-boosted prices for the Made In China stuff American consumers love, Walmart is focused on food. The world's largest retailer cherished a better-than-expected $130B in revenues last quarter (FYI - that's almost double the 2nd biggest company in America). But the highlight was groceries: It now boasts 62% more online grocery shoppers than its next closest rival.

Take 3... Snap's into it. The social network's first 2 attempts at a wearable didn't work — the $150 Spectacles to record your every disappearable moment cost the company $40M in wasted frames. Now it's trying a 3rd version of its glasses for a cool $380 — it thinks the not-horrible look and 3D focused filters could move the needle.

Lows

...and who's down

Shade thrown... The guy who first reported the lies of Bernie Madoff and Enron? Now he's calling out GE. Fraud investigator Harry Markopolos claims the 127-year-old American icon is hiding $38B in losses from the books. GE believes Harry's just trying to manipulate its stock price so he can profit personally, but shares fell 10% on "the next Enron" vibes.

"Fashion miss"... Their words, not ours. Macy's dropped 18% after a series of mistakes that made an already brutal situation worse: Its new private-label athletic line got no love, it didn't sell enough warm weather goods this spring, and there aren't as many tourists in America going shopping. That all forced Macy's to put way too many clothes on sale, which dropped profits 48% from the same period last year.

This guy... Overstock's CEO. Turns out he was dating a Russian spy for 3 years. Last week he had his company issue a press release about how that got him involved in the 2016 presidential election investigation where he was interviewed by the "Men in Black." The bad look dropped the ecommerce company's stock 29% last week.

Budding

Cannabis' biggest week of the summer is a major downer for pot investors

Nice timing... Just as Woodstock festers celebrated their 50th reunion, cannabis stocks enjoyed their busiest week of the summer. Two of the biggest publicly traded pot companies revealed their earnings from the last quarter, both showing that it's hard out there for cannabis companies.

  • Tilray (-27% last week): The Candian cannabis icon sold 5.6K kilos of weed (triple what it did last year), but its loss doubled. It acquired hemp-based food creator Manitoba Harvest and more recently treated itself to a CBD candy company.
  • Canopy (-14% last week): Earth's biggest pot producer sold a hefty 9K kilos of weed (with revenues almost quadrupling), but it also gets more broke each quarter — losses more than quadrupled.

It's actually been a tough weed summer... Canopy's media-savvy CEO was just fired by its big new investor because he wasn't moving fast enough on CBD-infused drinks for the US market. CannTrust shares hit an all-time low after authorities seized some illegally-grown cannabis. And Sundial Growers recently IPO'd but was caught selling pot with mold.

Weed profits won't come for years... Canopy's CEO admitted that it could be half a decade before it's profitable. So pot companies are shifting their geographic strategy to find some wholesome profits.

  • The US opportunity is huge, but limited — Only 11 states + DC have legalized weed, so the market is mostly limited to hemp-derived CBD creams, oils, drinks, and adorable dog treats.
  • And Canada's got an oversupply problem — Even though it's legal since last fall, they're producing more up north than the people want.
  • So pot companies are looking to study abroad — Tilray is building a new growing facility in Portugal and Aurora just announced a deal with the Italian government.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: 8 ways leaders perfectly delegate anything
  • Life: 5 tricks to join the Inbox Zero lifestyle
  • Money: Options, calls, and puts — what they are and how they work
  • Venture: How the Museum of Ice Cream raised $40M from venture capital firms
  • Crypto: New Zealand becomes the first country allowing salary payments in cryptocurrencies
  • Do: Check out Virgin Galactic's luxury lounge for space tourism (no shoe/electronics removal necessary)

This Week

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.