Wednesday Dec.01, 2021

👟 Allbirds’ woolly earnings

Eucalyptus-pulp shoes in the wild [Gary John Norman/ The Image Bank via Getty Images]
Eucalyptus-pulp shoes in the wild [Gary John Norman/ The Image Bank via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Shine bright like a republic: The Caribbean island of Barbados has removed Queen Elizabeth II as its head of state. Rihanna, who hails from the former British colony, attended a grand ceremony to celebrate the new republic — and was named its 11th national hero.

Stocks plunged yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said higher inflation could be coming in the wake of the Omicron variant. He said the central bank might consider ending its economy-boosting bond-buying program sooner than expected.

Popcorn

UK regulators ordered Facebook to sell Giphy — and it could set a powerful precedent

Time to fire up the popcorn.gif… Facebook’s purchase of Giphy is turning into a thriller. Yesterday the UK’s antitrust regulator ordered Meta (formerly Facebook) to sell Giphy, the GIF-sharing platform that FB acquired last year for $315M. Refresher: Giphy doesn't own the rights to the vids used in GIFs, so it made money by showing sponsored results to searches (you search "glow up" and get a glossy mouth with Maybelline branding).

  • 2 whammies: Regulators say the merger reduced ad competition by killing Giphy’s ad service in the US and hurt social competition by giving Meta control over Snap, Twitter, and TikTok’s access to GIFs.
  • 4 options: Meta can appeal, sell Giphy, leave the UK, or get fined. The UK already fined Meta $70M for failing to cooperate with the investigation. The social giant said it’s considering an appeal.

Zuck never Meta tougher regulator… The company formerly known as Facebook has received plenty of antitrust criticism before, but this lawsuit is unprecedented because it involves a UK regulator trying to break up a completed tech merger between American companies. Still, global regulators have targeted US tech giants before. A few examples:

  • London regulators ordered Uber to shut down in 2019, but Uber won the legal battle.
  • Australia passed a law to make Facebook and Google pay for news content, and both eventually struck deals with Aussie media companies after getting the legislation amended. Oz is expected to announce a new inquiry into Big Tech companies today.

Precedent is powerful… Since Meta faces ongoing antitrust lawsuits worldwide, regulators will be watching its every move. If Meta doesn’t appeal, other regulators may be emboldened to crack down too. President Biden has appointed several regulators in the past year — like FTC Chair Lina Khan — who can’t wait to challenge monopolistic practices at Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon. Meta doesn’t want to set a precedent that could break up its biz, so it may take extra care to guard its GIFs.

Woolly

Eco-friendly shoemaker Allbirds posts strong sales for its first-ever earnings — but needs a bigger fan base to potentially turn a profit

Wool shoes and hydro flasks… Throw in a Patagonia, and you’ve got yourself a tech uniform. Allbirds’ eco-friendly shoes have become a Silicon Valley staple. Think: $98 kicks made from wool, sugarcane, and South African eucalyptus pulp. Shares of the direct-to-consumer company have fallen 33% since going public last month. Allbirds’ first public earnings report didn’t wow investors, and the stock dropped 6% after hours.

  • Step up: Allbirds' quarterly sales rose 33%, to $63M, thanks to strong demand for its new athleisure clothing line and fresh sneaker styles (like limited-edition Runner Fluffs).
  • Step down: Allbirds’ loss nearly doubled from last year, to $14M, as it splurged to expand its brick-and-mortar stores to 31 locations.

Plastic-bottle shoestrings… and carbon-negative soles. Allbirds has put sustainability at the center of its business, attracting eco-conscious Zillennials. While the average pair of sneakers creates 12 kilograms of CO2 emissions, Allbirds claims its shoes produce only 7. Its ESG pledges include creating 100% renewable energy for its production facilities by 2025.

  • Younger consumers are almost 2X as likely to consider ESG issues when making purchasing decisions, compared to consumers over the age of 38.
  • That’s why companies like Beyond Meat, Patagonia, Tom’s, and Allbirds have put eco-friendly messaging and materials at their core.

Brand love doesn’t equal brand permanence… Last year, more than half of Allbirds' sales were from repeat customers. But since its expenses are growing along with losses, it may need to grow beyond that core audience to survive long term. Values-driven companies like Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat have seen sales slump recently, and even OG sustainable shoe brand Toms has had to revamp its image to broaden its appeal.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Cron: While scientists race to understand Omicron’s threat, vax leaders are sharing early predictions: The creator of Pfizer’s Covid vax said Omicron is unlikely to cause severe illness in vaxxed people, while Moderna’s CEO said it could make shots much less effective.
  • Pillin: An FDA advisory panel narrowly endorsed the use of Merck’s Covid-treatment pill, despite unanswered questions over its effectiveness and safety.
  • DeTweet: Twitter said it won’t allow users to share non-public photos or videos of other people without their consent.
  • Cryptic: Following reports that India would ban all private cryptocurrencies, the country clarified that it’s closely monitoring crypto ads — not weighing a ban (for now).
  • Cloudy: Amazon’s AWS, aka the world’s biggest cloud provider, launched new chips to help customers beat the cost of computing chips from Intel and Nvidia.
  • Musky: Elon told SpaceX employees that the lack of progress made in developing Raptor rocket engines has created a “genuine risk of bankruptcy.”

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from: Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Okta, Build-A-Bear Workshop, and Royal Bank of Canada

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Google, Twitter, Apple, Uber, Snap, Pfizer, Amazon, and Moderna

ID: 1941041

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

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Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped