Monday Oct.12, 2020

🍃 Canopy's cannabis comeback

_The Vermont woods are looking green this fall_

Hey Snackers,

Forget RVs, hotel rooms, and tropical beaches — the most creative "work-from-anywhere" location is a ferris wheel. This Japanese "Amusement Workation" park is perfect for screaming after Zoom calls.

US stocks notched their best week in three months. The White House raised its coronavirus stimulus offer to $1.8T on Friday, nearing the $2.2T bill Democrats passed earlier. Doesn't sound like either will get green-lit soon.

On the pod: Microsoft's letting employees WFH forever. Tune into our 15-minute pod to hear what "hybrid work" means for you (and your paycheck).

Pot

Cannabis stocks have their best day in months on legalization-friendly news

Defining the relationship... with the law. Marijuana stocks got high last week on two hits of legalization news (sorry, had to). Aurora Cannabis shares popped 9% while Canopy Growth and Tilray surged over 24%. The pro-weed news:

Sen. Kamala Harris said Joe Biden would decriminalize marijuana at the federal level (if elected) during the VP debate on Wednesday.
Vermont Governor Phil Scott said he would let the legalization of recreational marijuana move forward in his state.

Hash out the deets... While recreational pot use is legal in 11 US states, marijuana is still an illegal Schedule I drug at the federal level, along with LSD and heroin. That's why it's basically impossible for American cannabis stocks to trade on US exchanges. Aurora, Canopy, and Tilray (which trade on US exchanges) are Canadian. Expanding the legal pot market is key to their success — especially since the past two years have been a buzz kill...

The late 2018 "weed bubble" has popped. Demand for weed in legalized places hasn't met hyped hopes. Pot companies over-produced and lost billions.
Since the 2018 highs, Aurora and Tilray shares have lost ~95% of their value and Canopy has dropped 65%.

Investors feel uncomfy in the legal gray area… Since soaring on legalization in Canada, cannabis stocks have taken a hit partly because companies haven’t DTR’d with the US government. Their illegal federal status not only complicates costs and access to capital, but also limits the size of their market. Last week’s boost suggests weed needs to become federally legit for canna-companies to reach the next level.

Highs

Who's up...

Channeling Jimmy Neutron... with the jeanius energy. Levi's offset corona-losses last quarter with a 52% surge in online sales. The jean legend's total sales fell 27% from last year, but it notched a profit and the stock popped on positive momentum. Also — Levi's just launched a "recommerce" site to sell your old jeans. Denim-recycling is sustainable and bankable: Levi's can cash in on the same pair of hip-huggers five times (instead of Poshmark).

Not left on read... Cloud company Twilio helps other companies talk to customers (think: text notifications, emails, support calls). Clearly, it's a good time to be in remote communications: Twilio stock jumped last week after the company raised its sales expectations for the quarter, and has nearly doubled this year on growth. But Microsoft's new calling/messaging service brings XL-sized competition. Twilio's reported $3.2B acquisition of customer data startup Segment could help it level up — just throw in a burrito to seal the deal.

Lows

...and who's down

Like the NBA Finals... DraftKings brought the tension. The sports betting stock had soared since September as live sports (besides Russian ping-pong) returned. But the stock dunked 20% last week on news that DraftKings is selling 16M new shares. These fresh shares dilute the value of existing stock, so stockholders will own less of the overall company. Also potential nail-biters: company insiders are cashing out on $832M of stock, and at least three NFL teams reported new COVID-19 cases last week.

Empty out the wine cellar... and throw on the "sad tunez" playlist. Santa Barbara-based Sonos got dumped by Apple. The Fruit is done selling headphones/speakers from "outsiders" like Sonos, Logitech, and Bose — Apple's going 100% DIY-audio. That kills speculation that Apple could acquire Sonos, like it snatched up Beats in 2014. Sonos stock dropped 11% last week on the breakup. Pssst: Apple's new speakers and over-the-ear headphones could show up at its big hardware event tomorrow.

What else we’re Snackin’

Snooze: 5 tips for building naps into a productive WFH routine without waking up groggy (don't shame the Zzzs — embrace them).
Feel: Tips on dealing with loneliness, from an astronaut who spent a year in space. 60% of adults report feeling isolated since March.
Work: 14 Slack hacks, including GIFs, reminders and color themes (adding sections to your sidebar reduces ping-anxiety from 100 to 40).
Chill: How to build a morning meditation practice to start your day on a healthier note (instead of doom scrolling).
Think: 6 lessons from Stoic philosophy to make your life better today — it's all about what you can control.
Focus: 4 steps to regaining focus when you’re totally stressed — our focus level tanks when we're overwhelmed.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to start getting Snacks daily? Sign up here for our daily market newsletter.

This Week

Monday: Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples' Day
Tuesday: Apple's hardware event (expect the iPhone 12). Earnings expected from Chase, Citi, Delta, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson
Wednesday: Amazon's annual "Prime Day" promo ends. Earnings expected from UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and United Airlines
Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Morgan Stanley, Schwab, Honeywell, and Walgreens
Friday: Earnings expected from BNY Mellon and Ally Financial

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple and Disney

ID: 1362832

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Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?