Monday Jan.09, 2023

🇺🇸 Labor’s right wrong turn

About 125K US workers lost their jobs last year (Johannes Eisele/Getty Images)
About 125K US workers lost their jobs last year (Johannes Eisele/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

It’s only nine days into the new year and California’s already abandoned Dry January: the Sunny State is having a drenching month with heavy rains and flooding.

In the first big rally of 2023, the S&P 500 gained 1.5% for the week after news that wage growth cooled last month. About that…

Wrong

Investors celebrated cooling wages, but the layoff-laden labor market’s still too hot for comfort

Oh the weather outside is frightful… but the December jobs report is apparently delightful. Stocks rallied Friday after fresh labor data showed a slowdown in wage growth. Normally, that wouldn’t be a great sign, but in this “good is bad” economy it serves as more evidence that inflation is cooling. Read: the Fed’s rate-hiking crusade is working.

  • But also: The job market’s still red hot. US employers added a stronger-than-expected 223K jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% (near historic lows).

  • But still: Investors celebrated cooling wages, which can translate to cooling prices, which could translate to the Fed being less aggro with rate hikes.

Everyone’s worried about jobs… and no one’s worried about the job market? We’re seeing this paradox playing out: Americans are on edge over job security, but in November there were 1.7 openings for every available worker. Still, job growth is losing steam (employers are adding fewer roles each month) and mass layoffs are only heating up.

  • Tech layoffs are happening at the fastest rate since the pandemic: last week Amazon announced plans to lay off 18K+ employees and Salesforce said it’s cutting 8K. Online styling service Stitch Fix said it would let go of 20% of staff, while struggling crypto lender Genesis slashed 30%.

  • Not just tech: While tech is a rate-sensitive industry, others like Goldman Sachs, Dodge maker Stellantis, and Redfin have announced big cuts.

The labor market needs to get more wrong to feel right… The strong job market is the last remnant of the pandemic-stimulus era (recall: near-zero interest rates, fat checks). Job data is a lagging indicator, and we’re finally starting to see hawkishness catch up to it. But Fed officials said they’d need to see sustained cooling before easing up on hikes — a scenario investors are hungry for. At least the trend is moving in the right (cough, wrong) direction.

Events

Coming up this week...

Securing the vault… Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi kick off bank earnings this week, and all eyes are on lending. So far, higher rates have boosted banking profits, since banks are earning more on deposits and loans (think: mortgages). In October, Chase reported that quarterly revenue jumped 10% to $33B while profit surged 34%. Bank of America and Wells Fargo also topped revenue estimates. While economic woes could hurt loan demand, delinquencies are still low, and analysts expect more growth when banks report.

Ready for takeoff… As Southwest went into a tailspin, Delta soared. Last month the Atlanta-based airline predicted its earnings would nearly double this year from last, jetting past expectations. CEO Ed Bastian said the post-Covid travel boom hasn't petered out, as people prioritize “experiential” spending over material goods. Delta seems to believe the good times will keep rolling: it agreed to multiyear raises for pilots and is adding customer perks like free Wi-Fi. We'll see if the highflying industry optimism lands in reality when Delta reports.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Cryptowned Customers of bankrupt crypto lender Celsius got more bad news: a judge ruled that the $4.2B in crypto they'd deposited into 600K interest-bearing accounts belongs to Celsius. Now those customers will be last in line to get repaid. The biz's terms of service, updated eight times, sealed the deal (lesson: read the TOS). The ruling could set the tone for customer compensation in other crypto-related bankruptcies (think: FTX, BlockFi). Meanwhile, the New York attorney general accused Celsius' founder of fraud.

From phone screens to flat screens… stream-ification is coming for TV. Dongle icon Roku said it’s launching its own “streaming-first” TV sets. It’s good timing: in July streamers got more TV view time than cable networks for the first time as cord-cutting continued — and 87% of US households had a streaming sub last year. While televisions aren’t likely to go the way of cable, they could play a key role in a future where consumers toggle between services like Netflix and Disney+, changing streamers instead of channels.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Fold: Bed Bath & Beyond shares plunged 47% last week after the embattled retailer said it might file for bankruptcy. OG category-killers are struggling to compete against online options (ahem, Amazon).

  • Elon: Tesla delivered a record 1.3M cars last year, but the stock posted its worst drop in over two years after #s fell shy of targets. Now investors worry Musk is too focused on Twitter — to Tesla’s detriment.

  • Run: Silvergate, the bank that helped fuel the crypto boom, plans to cut 40% of its staff after wary customers pulled out $8.1B. Since Silvergate is a key crypto player, the wider industry could feel the fallout.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Speed: Ultrafast-delivery apps (think: lunch in under 10 mins) are booming across India. But drivers say the work's dangerous. The country's projected to have 23M+ gig workers by 2030, up from 7.7M in 2020.
  • Peep: TV sticker prices have plummeted over the past decade as "smart" features allow sellers to profit off customers after they've left the store. Picture: tracking your viewing habits, then selling that data.
  • Red: Stocks had their worst year since 2008, with tech standouts like Coinbase and Meta leading the plunge. Energy was the only sector that shined, with some stocks doubling.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Tilray and WD-40 Co.
  • Tuesday: NFIB small-business index. Earnings expected from Albertsons
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Wipro
  • Thursday: Consumer price index. Earnings expected from Infosys, TSMC, and Platinum Group Metals
  • Friday: Earnings expected from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Delta

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Amazon, Disney, Delta, Roku, and Tesla

ID: 2668229

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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