Friday Apr.22, 2022

🎹 Steinway’s IP-ian-O

Nothing like that new piano smell (Isabel Infantes/AFP via Getty Images)
Nothing like that new piano smell (Isabel Infantes/AFP via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

The typo of a lifetime: a woman won $10M after pressing the wrong button on a lottery-ticket machine when a stranger bumped into her in an LA supermarket. She never got an apology, not that she needs it now.

Stocks sank, reversing earlier gains, as Fed Chair Powell signaled that a bigger rate hike is “on the table” for next month’s meeting.

Ivories

Steinway files for an IPO to bring its pricey pianos to China’s luxury listeners

Enter the piano-verse… The maker of Steinway pianos is going from the concert stage to the stock exchange. Last week Steinway Musical Instruments filed to go public on the NYSE (the exact date isn’t set). Its IPO comes as luxury spending booms, particularly in China.

  • Old keys: Steinways sell for between $60K and $2.4M. Last year the 169-year-old brand scored nearly $60M in profits, a 14% jump from 2020.
  • New tricks: Steinway’s self-playing Spirio accounted for a third of its piano sales last year. Two out of three Spirio owners can’t even play piano, but they can stream live concerts or classic Duke Ellington shows at cocktail parties.

Powerhouse performers, meet luxury listeners… Steinway’s come far from its NYC roots. The company built its brand on partnerships with star pianists (Billy Joel) and iconic venues (Sydney Opera House): 97% of pianists use Steinways in concert. Steinway ships pianos anywhere on Earth for its nearly 2K elite “Steinway Artists” (it even sent one to an iceberg). But to expand, Steinway is focusing on homebuyers. Increasingly they’re in China:

  • More music: Today China has 7X as many pianists as the US. That trend’s accelerating: 30M kids in China study piano, compared to fewer than 10M in the entire rest of the world.
  • Bigger spending: Luxury spending in China’s surging: consumers worth $30M+ — Steinway’s sweet spot — have doubled in the past five years.

It’s good to sell pianos, but better to sell luxury… Steinway calls itself a luxury brand first and a piano brand second. The reason: the luxe goods market is 135X as big as the musical-instrument market, and it's growing 3X as fast. Steinway mentioned China 156 times in its IPO filing: by catering to China’s music-loving upper class, the piano powerhouse hopes to grow its customer base of big-spending piano lovers.

Caged

Billionaire Carl Icahn takes on McDonald’s animal-welfare practices, while calling out Wall Street’s ESG “hypocrisy”

Just in time for Earth Day… Carl Icahn's latest beef differs from his usual shareholder-focused strategy of corporate raiding. Yesterday the billionaire investor wrote a passionate letter to McDonald’s investors accusing the fast-food giant of animal cruelty. Icahn has a small ($50K) stake in the Golden Arches, but it hasn’t kept him from waging a public proxy battle over the company’s pork-supply-chain practices.

  • The issue: A decade ago, McDonald’s vowed to phase out suppliers that use controversial gestation crates (think: supertight metal stalls for pregnant pigs). Update: still hasn’t happened.
  • Icahn’s answer: Add two of his hand-picked directors to McDonald’s board to ensure the pigs are treated better.
  • Mickey D’s response: Icahn’s demands are “unfeasible” and would create a “financial burden” for its customers (read: more expensive bacon).

Sustainability hypocrisy… ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing is one of the hottest trends on Wall Street. Last year, investors poured a record $120B into sustainable assets — 2X more than in 2020. While arguing animal welfare should be a pillar of ESG, Icahn’s also calling out corporate green promises as hollow marketing ploys. And he says the big asset managers (like: BlackRock) reap billions without holding companies accountable.

A small stake can make a big difference… Activist investors are using their influence to force corporations to make sustainable changes. It’s worked before: activist fund Engine No. 1 won three seats on Exxon's board last year with just a 0.02% stake after it convinced shareholders Exxon needed to get serious about climate change. McDonald's shareholders will get their chance to weigh in on Icahn’s cause at its annual meeting next month.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Secured: Looks like he’s really going for it: Elon says he’s lined up $46.5B in financing to buy Twitter. Twitter execs popped a “poison pill” to stop the takeover, so he might take his offer directly to shareholders.
  • Change: The Obamas are leaving Spotify after the streamer didn’t offer them a new podcast deal. The former first couple is reportedly shopping for a new deal with a wider (aka non-exclusive) reach.
  • Primed: For a fee, Amazon’s letting other online retailers offer its Prime delivery service directly on their sites. The strategy shift is a direct response to Shopify’s explosive growth.
  • Minus: CNN+ is shutting down, just a month after its lavish launch. It’s one of the biggest failures for a new media venture in recent history, and comes after CNN pitched the streamer as its digital future.
  • Vanish: Shares of Snap tumbled, then recovered, after the Snapchat parent missed profit and earnings expectations, citing a “challenging” quarter. Silver lining: Snap saw 18% annual growth in daily active users.

Friday

  • Earth Day
  • Earnings expected from Verizon, American Express, and Honeywell

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Amazon, Snap, Twitter, Spotify, and Exxon

ID: 2164562

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Tech

SpaceX is creating NASA spaceport congestion problems

NASA is considering expanding its Wallops Island, Virginia, facilities to support three times as many rocket launches, TechCrunch reports. Why does it need space for that many rockets? Mostly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Launches by SpaceX and other private space exploration companies have been taking off in recent years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Markets

Carvana’s stock is sometimes up, sometimes down, always volatile

Shares in online car seller Carvana surged some 34% yesterday, continuing their recent resurgence. That rebound has made the father-son duo behind the company some $11B since late 2022 — a period when the stock was dropping as much as 40% in a single day, and was teetering on the verge of insolvency as creditors explored options to restructure its debt.

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

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$110B

Apple announced a massive $110B boost in share buybacks — the biggest of all time. That’s even higher than the $90 billion analysts expected. For context in the last 12 years Apple spent a total of $650 billion buying back its own stock. The entire S&P 500 did $795 billion last year. That certainly softens the blow from a 4% decrease in revenue.

Ozempic, Wegovy drive Novo Nordisk profits up

Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell on Thursday, as investors digested the latest hard numbers from the maker of heavily-hyped drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

For the record, sales of both continue to explode, though sales of Wegovy, which more than doubled to kr. 9.8B, came in about 10% below analyst expectations. Ozempic sales, which slowed, actually were better than expectations.

In Danish currency terms, Q1 profit jumped 28% for the company, which is based in suburban Copenhagen. Novo Nordisk’s market value of roughly $570 billion is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

Luke Kawa
5/2/24

Short sellers are getting squeezed on Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix

Shares of Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix were ripping Thursday morning.

These companies don’t have too much in common from a business operations standpoint — one makes batteries, another needs batteries, and one sells furniture and rugs that really tie the room together.

What they do have in common right now though: traders were betting on their shares to fall, and each released quarterly earnings reports either after the market closed on Wednesday or on Thursday morning that weren’t as bad as feared, in one way or another.

As of mid-April, short interest as a percentage of equity float for these stocks ranged from 26% (Wayfair) to 31% (Enovix), according to exchange data.

Betting against two of these companies had paid off so far this year, with Carvana being the exception. Shares of the used-car retailer were up 78% heading into Thursday’s session versus Wayfair (-14%), and Enovix (-47%). For comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 5.8 percent year-to-date.

Hat tip to Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital, for bringing this to our attention.

World

Japan's yen is lassoed to the dollar, for better or for worse

What happens in the US economy doesn’t stay there: the Fed’s choice to keep interest rates unchanged could increase pressure pushing down the Japanese yen. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell held interest rates steady at a two-decade high. 

Before sticky interest-rates were announced, the yen on Monday flirted with (but didn’t quite hit) a 160:1 conversion rate with the US dollar. It’s widely thought that Japanese authorities intervened to prop up the yen by buying yen and selling dollars. But the suspected trading spree barely budged the yen’s value, which is the weakest it’s been vs. the dollar since the ’80s. 

ÂĄ157 to $1

Japan’s especially sensitive to US interest-rate decisions because its own rates are ultra-low. The problem: investors buy yen at low borrowing rates but quickly convert it to another currency for higher returns. 

Even just the anticipation (more like dread) of rate-cut delays has contributed to the yen’s slide. When it comes to when the Fed expects confidence to rise enough to slash rates, Powell on Wednesday left investors on read with a big “IDK.”