Monday Jan.31, 2022

🪙 China’s Olympic digi-currency

Racing for Olympic digi-gold [Aksonov/E+ via GettyImages]
Racing for Olympic digi-gold [Aksonov/E+ via GettyImages]

Hey Snackers,

Tesla couldn’t ship the Cybertruck in time (new ETA: 2023), but it did launch an equally crucial product: an in-car karaoke mic. Tesla says the $188 TeslaMic lets you “wander the sea of music.” It sold out in China in one day.

Stocks jumped today to end a roller coaster month. The market-tracking S&P 500 index had its worst month since March 2020 (aka: when Covid lockdowns hit), falling 5% as investors braced for higher interest rates. Meanwhile, a Danish study found that the new Omicron variant is more infectious than the OG Omicron.

Ice

China champions digi-yuan at the Beijing Olympics as countries race to launch digital currencies

On your mark, get set… Go digital. China will promote its state-run digital currency at the Winter Olympics, which kick off on Friday in Beijing. The digital yuan (#digi-yuan) is Earth’s first major central bank-backed digital currency. China started rolling it out in 2019, and even tested expiration dates to fuel spending. This month, China opened it up to all citizens and launched a digi-wallet app (it already has 261M users).

  • Digi-yuan is real Chinese currency, but code instead of paper. Unlike crypto and cash, there's no anonymity with digi-yuan (China traces spending).
  • Digi-snow cone: International athletes and visitors can use it to pay for transit, food, and even Great Wall tours. But US lawmakers told Olympic athletes not to use it on privacy concerns.
  • Digi-Big Mac: China is pushing US companies like Nike and Visa to accept digi-yuans, and McDonald’s and Subway locations in Shanghai already do.
  • Digi-competition: China says its digi wallet won’t replace popular payment apps like Alibaba-backed Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat Pay, which support digi-yuan. But those providers aren’t available at the Olympic Village, while China’s digi-wallet is (awk).

Watch the throne… Digi-yuan could threaten the US dollar’s global trade dominance and soften the effect of US sanctions, especially on China. The USD’s reliable rep has made it the world's "reserve currency" for international purchases (think: Canada buys oil from Mexico... in USD), making US sanctions a nightmare for impacted countries. Also: USD is used in 88% of foreign exchange trades. But the dollar’s share of global payments is falling as euros, yuans, and cryptos gain. And now, China is positioning the digi-yuan for international use.

The race to digi-dominance is on… 87 countries are developing digital currencies, which settle instantly, are less expensive to create, and are more accessible for people without bank accounts. Of the five biggest banking systems, the US is furthest from going digital – though it’s exploring a digital dollar. But there are concerns with digi-currencies: surveillance states like China could use them to automatically fine citizens for things like jaywalking (it’s already using facial recognition cameras to send fine notifications via text).

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Spoti-fiasco... Spotify’s getting heat for "The Joe Rogan Experience," aka: the world's largest pod. In December, Rogan interviewed Covid vaccine critic Dr. Robert Malone. Cue: 270 medical experts called on Spotify to curb misinfo on its platform. Then, Neil Young demanded that Spotify remove his tunes or remove Rogan — Spotify nixed Young. The streamer reportedly paid $100M to make JRE Spotify-exclusive, as pods play a growing role in its growth (FYI: it reports on Wednesday). As its pod biz booms, Spotify could face more pressure to define its moderation policies.

Yellow Cab meets Jetsons... Electric flying taxis (think: futuristic helicopters) are taking off. Boeing-backed startup Wisk just sealed a deal with Blade’s urban mobility network to fly autonomous taxis in the US. Earlier this month, Toyota-backed Joby said its prototype completed a high-speed flight. ETA for passenger service: 2024. Houston, LA, and Orlando have announced plans to establish air taxi “skyports.” But first, flying taxis need the FAA’s greenlight to fly commercially. And companies still face several hurdles — from air traffic control challenges, to public support.

Events

Coming up this week...

Tech in the red... The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is still in a correction (down 14% from its November record). Now, all eyes are on earnings coming up from Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. Amazon’s hot holiday profits could get dinged by wage hikes, while Meta plans to finally break out results for its AR segment. Investors are curious to see if the tech biggies can keep up their streaks, after pandemic thrivers like Netflix and Peloton reported slowing growth. Still, Microsoft's big earnings beat and Apple’s record quarterly sales are encouraging.

Rattling some pills… The FDA halted distribution of Regeneron’s and Eli Lilly’s Covid treatments last week because the drugs haven’t been working against Omicron, which makes up 99% of US cases. Bad news for the drugmakers, since those antibody drugs drove nearly a third of their sales last quarter. Meanwhile, Merck's pioneering Covid pill is showing promise in treating the variant, and is expected to generate $7B in sales this year. We might get updates on how pharma views Omicron variant #2 (it’s a thing) when they report this week.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights…

  • Fruity: Apple had its biggest quarter of sales ever as people upgraded to new iPhone 13s and faster Macs. Despite supply hurdles, sales grew across every product line except iPads (womp).
  • Elsa: Barbie-maker Mattel won back the rights to make Disney princess dolls, after losing them six years ago to rival toy giant Hasbro. Disney’s licensing biz shows that intellectual property is queen.
  • Elon: Tesla’s quarterly profit 9X’d from a year earlier, while annual car deliveries nearly doubled to a Musk-ular 926K. But its market share is plunging as OGs like Ford, GM, and Volkswagen scale EV production.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Coins: Cryptocurrencies have been on a wild ride as prices of some coins have seen percent changes in the hundreds or thousands in a day — but some crypto enthusiasts are doubling down.
  • Fuego: Spice legend McCormick wants to make hot sauce the new ketchup with its purchase of cult-favorite brands like Frank’s RedHot and Cholula. Like Campbell’s, it’s tapping Millennial trends for fresh growth.
  • Crisis: The US and Germany warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine, they won’t move forward with an $11B pipeline project, Nord Stream 2, to deliver natural gas from Russia to Germany.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from: Heartland Financial
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from: Alphabet, Alibaba, Exxon Mobil, UPS, Amgen, GM, Ferrari, EA, Match Group, Stanley Black & Decker, and Harley-Davidson
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from: Meta, Paypal, Qualcomm, Sony, GlaxoSmithKline, MetLife, Spotify, Aflac, eBay, and Allstate
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from: Amazon, Merck, Shell, Ford, Cigna, Activision, Snap, Estee Lauder, Motorola, and Hershey
  • Friday: Earnings expected from: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sanofi, and Regeneron

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin, and shares of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Ford, Snap, GM, Netflix, Tesla, Spotify, and Google

ID: 2014975

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Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

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Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?