Wednesday Jul.20, 2022

⛽ Europe's energy crisis

Energy in crisis (Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images)
Energy in crisis (Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Home prices are wild, but over at Netflix you can get one for less than a coffee: the Flix is charging users for password sharing by letting them buy “additional homes” for $3/month. Niiice.

Stocks surged yesterday as investors parsed through the latest batch of earnings. With the S&P 500 up 8% from June lows, some investors think the market may’ve hit a bottom — but others say the worst is still to come.

Pump

Europe’s energy crisis could get a lot worse as Russia’s gas-withholding moves threaten the global economy

All dried up… Europe’s at the boiling point of an epic energy crisis as political tensions and record heat waves ripple through the continent. This week, Russia’s Gazprom (the biggest natural-gas company by sales) halted exports to three major European customers citing force majeure — a stoppage for extraordinary circumstances. Europeans aren’t buying it:

  • Hot air: Uniper, Germany's largest gas importer, said the halt was “unjustified” (read: Gazprom has gas to spare). Uniper’s already tapped a $2B credit line and drawn down winter reserves to keep Germany’s gas-fueled electricity and A/C flowing.
  • Heat-pocalypse: Yesterday, the UK had its hottest day ever recorded, while the Netherlands had record July temps and France sent out extreme-heat warnings.

Pipe problems… Russia supplies nearly half of the EU’s natural gas. Problem: over the past month, Gazprom’s cut its export capacity to 40%. The Nord Stream pipeline (the main connection between Germany and Russia) closed last week for an annual maintenance check. But Europeans worry that the force majeure signals Russia won't reopen its taps by tomorrow’s deadline. And Europe’s gas prices are already up 8X from a year ago.

Europe’s crisis could be a global disaster… This year, Europe has surpassed Asia as the top importer of US oil for the first time since 2016 (because it’s getting way less gas from Russia). But US production isn’t growing fast enough to meet the needs of both continents and its own. Eventually, the energy crisis could cost European taxpayers $200B through higher energy bills and higher taxes. Globally, a tighter gas market could trigger more inflation, hurt economic output, and fuel a recession.

Phony

Amazon sues 10K Facebook groups over brokering fake reviews, as phony five-star operations erode customer trust

"Amaaazing quality, feels like silk"... probably a review for that paper-thin polyester Amazon PJ. More than a third of Amazon reviews are estimated to be fake or unreliable. Now the Zon is taking legal action to crack down on fake five-stars: yesterday, Amazon filed a suit against administrators of 10K+ Facebook groups it accuses of brokering bogus reviews in exchange for money or free stuff.

  • Admins of one group are accused of charging Amazon sellers $10 for each good review. Another group, "Amazon Product Review," amassed 43K+ members before being removed.
  • Many of the groups are private, and posters try to evade moderators by omitting letters (think: “Rfund Aftr Rvew.”)
  • Amazon wants the groups to shut down and return their “ill-gotten gains.” Facebook owner Meta has removed half of the groups reported — and is investigating others.

Bluetooth headphones and supplements... some of the hardest-hit categories for fake reviews. Phony write-ups have become a growing headache for Amazon, whose marketplace now includes millions of third-party sellers. It's not just a Facebook problem: illicit review communities have thrived on social apps like WhatsApp, Telegram, and WeChat.

  • Moderate: Amazon has said that it uses a mix of AI and human moderators to hunt fake reviews, and has reported thousands of groups to social companies.
  • Spiral: Still, thousands of bogus reviews keep cropping up across the Zon’s massive storefront — and sneaky sellers and review brokers are cashing in.

Phoniness is a trust-killer… Amazon isn’t the only one plagued by the fake-review biz: Yelp, TripAdvisor, and Google have the same problem (see: non-existent restaurant hits #1 on TripAdvisor). Five-star reviews might be the reason you spend your hard-earned money on something. Misleading reviews could cause you to lose trust in a platform, threatening review-reliant businesses like Amazon.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Muskular: Wake us up when September ends: a judge ruled Twitter’s trial against Elon will start in October. Experts say there’s a good chance Musk will be forced to buy Twitter.
  • Binge: Netflix dodged a bullet: yesterday it reported that it lost fewer than 1M subscribers last quarter, far fewer than the 2M it had predicted. The stock jumped 8% on the “good” news. Ads are next.
  • Streamy: YouTube’s evolved since “David After Dentist”: The Google-owned platform partnered with Shopify to let creators host shoppable livestreams, which have gained popularity on Amazon and Insta.
  • Battle: Demand for defense tech has been rising since the Russia-Ukraine war began. But this week the top-earning defense biz, Lockheed Martin, lowered its sales and profit forecasts on supply and labor clogs.
  • Fine: After a year-long investigation, Chinese regulators will reportedly fine ride-hailer Didi $1B over breaking cybersecurity rules. On the plus side, it’ll finally be able to accept new users again.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Tesla, Abbott Labs, and Nasdaq

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Shopify, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Google, and Twitter

ID: 2301994

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World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24
Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).